A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
- rwallace estimated 99% on 2009-10-14
- drcode judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
- drcode judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
- drcode estimated 93% and said “I don’t think we can know anything that far out with 99% certainty” on 2009-10-14
- tommccabe estimated 70% on 2009-10-14
- JamesMiller judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
- JamesMiller judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
- JamesMiller estimated 20% on 2009-10-14
- Jack estimated 99% on 2009-10-14
- knb judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
- knb judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
- Matt said “Do we have a working test of whether Singularity has occurred? General consensus? Unmodified humans have average earnings < 5% of modified humans?” on 2009-10-14
- kess3r estimated 50% on 2009-10-15
- mjgeddes estimated 40% on 2009-10-15
- ChristianKl estimated 90% on 2009-10-15
- im estimated 50% on 2009-10-15
- DanArmak judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-16.
- DanArmak judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-16.
- DanArmak judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-16.
- DanArmak judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-16.
- DanArmak estimated 10% and said “I also wager 100% that none of us will come back to this site and this prediction in the year 2040.” on 2009-10-16
- anonym judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
- anonym estimated 3% on 2009-10-17
- Tobias_M judged this prediction right on 2009-10-19.
- freyley judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-21.
- freyley estimated 75% on 2009-10-21
- alpha-mouse estimated 98% on 2009-10-22
- faws estimated 75% on 2009-10-22
- Pablo estimated 60% on 2009-11-12
- gwern estimated 50% on 2010-09-28
- Larks estimated 60% on 2010-09-29
- PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2011-01-21
- lavalamp estimated 85% on 2011-11-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 97% on 2011-11-16
- Anubhav estimated 95% on 2011-11-16
- Anubhav estimated 85% and said “Typo. ” on 2011-11-16
- gimpf estimated 95% on 2011-11-16
- kilobug estimated 85% on 2011-11-18
- herb estimated 100% on 2011-12-03
- Pablo estimated 72% on 2012-09-27
- Tuxedage estimated 98% on 2013-01-03
- Malgidus estimated 45% on 2013-03-27
- halfwit estimated 50% on 2013-06-10
- NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2015-12-07
- themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-06
- Baeboo estimated 92% on 2017-11-25
- Baeboo estimated 90% on 2017-12-21
- gallerdude estimated 50% on 2017-12-21
- Baeboo estimated 88% on 2018-02-07
- pranomostro estimated 80% on 2018-11-25
- pranomostro estimated 68% on 2018-11-25
- Baeboo estimated 82% on 2018-12-12
- pranomostro estimated 85% on 2018-12-19
- deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
- pranomostro said “75” on 2020-02-09
- pranomostro estimated 75% and said “Ah, damn” on 2020-02-09
- scatterspace estimated 95% on 2021-06-14
- michaelchen estimated 90% on 2022-01-16
- sty.silver estimated 55% on 2022-01-16
- michaelchen estimated 75% on 2022-02-22
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2022-02-22