A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.

Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

  • rwallace estimated 99% on 2009-10-14
  • drcode  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • drcode  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • drcode estimated 93% and said “I don’t think we can know anything that far out with 99% certaintyon 2009-10-14
  • tommccabe estimated 70% on 2009-10-14
  • JamesMiller  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
  • JamesMiller  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • JamesMiller estimated 20% on 2009-10-14
  • Jack estimated 99% on 2009-10-14
  • knb  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • knb  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • Matt said “Do we have a working test of whether Singularity has occurred? General consensus? Unmodified humans have average earnings < 5% of modified humans?on 2009-10-14
  • kess3r estimated 50% on 2009-10-15
  • mjgeddes estimated 40% on 2009-10-15
  • ChristianKl estimated 90% on 2009-10-15
  • im estimated 50% on 2009-10-15
  • DanArmak  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-16.
  • DanArmak  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-16.
  • DanArmak  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-16.
  • DanArmak  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-16.
  • DanArmak estimated 10% and said “I also wager 100% that none of us will come back to this site and this prediction in the year 2040.on 2009-10-16
  • anonym  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 3% on 2009-10-17
  • Tobias_M  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-19.
  • freyley  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-21.
  • freyley estimated 75% on 2009-10-21
  • alpha-mouse estimated 98% on 2009-10-22
  • faws estimated 75% on 2009-10-22
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 60% on 2009-11-12
  • gwern estimated 50% on 2010-09-28
  • Larks estimated 60% on 2010-09-29
  • bobpage estimated 7% on 2011-01-21
  • lavalamp estimated 85% on 2011-11-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 97% on 2011-11-16
  • Anubhav estimated 95% on 2011-11-16
  • Anubhav estimated 85% and said “Typo. on 2011-11-16
  • gimpf estimated 95% on 2011-11-16
  • kilobug estimated 85% on 2011-11-18
  • herb estimated 100% on 2011-12-03
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 72% on 2012-09-27
  • Tuxedage estimated 98% on 2013-01-03
  • Malgidus estimated 45% on 2013-03-27
  • halfwit estimated 50% on 2013-06-10
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2015-12-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-06

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