PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW.

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

  • RobertLumley estimated 60% on 2011-12-08
  • RobertLumley said “I got almost exactly 500 karma in my fist 6 months on LW, for reference.” on 2011-12-08
  • gwern estimated 65% and said “seems reasonable.” on 2011-12-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2011-12-08
  • Grognor estimated 67% on 2011-12-09
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2011-12-09
  • saturn estimated 75% and said “Average karma per comment depends on the number of LW users, which is increasing” on 2011-12-11
  • fergus estimated 70% on 2011-12-13
  • endoself estimated 75% on 2011-12-22
  • Anubhav estimated 70% and said “Odds of future karmassassination given a karmassassination are non-negligible. ” on 2012-01-27
  • Leo estimated 80% on 2012-01-27
  • RobertLumley   judged this prediction right on 2012-04-06.
  • RobertLumley said “May go back down, but it’s crossed 1000 for now. I was very surprised that this still ended up being true, given I was karmassassinated. But I think I actually netted positive karma from that experience…” on 2012-04-06