If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-14
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/12/offended-by-bets.html#comments” on 2011-12-14
• gwern estimated 25% and said “looks bad for Obama to do that; on the other hand, he used to have a technocrat streak, so he might like the idea. worth noting that americans, even candidates, used to all the time http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/PoP_submit4.pdf” on 2011-12-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-12-14
• RobertLumley estimated 10% on 2011-12-14
• JoshuaZ said “gwern, that article is one of the most interesting things I’ve read all week. ” on 2011-12-14
• gwern said “/shrug. linked in the third sentence of http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets – can’t say it isn’t prominent” on 2011-12-14
• porridge estimated 50% and said “I don’t think Obama can pass on this opportunity, although I don’t think the offer will be made face-to-face.” on 2011-12-17
• Jayson Virissimo said “It doesn’t have to be face-to-face to count as a win. I think any such challenge that is reported by the MSM should count.” on 2011-12-23
• gwern said “yeah. how often do candidates actually meet face to face, outside of the very rare debates?” on 2011-12-23
• HonoreDB estimated 55% on 2011-12-25
• beo_shaffer estimated 15% on 2011-12-27
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.