gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2011-12-17
• gwern said “current data for past week: ‘Referring sites sent 2,288 visits via 127 sources’, 326 visits. historical info for other predicters: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/Analytics_www.gwern.net_20101001-20111215_%28ReferringSourcesReport%29.pdf” on 2011-12-17
• gwern said “overall traffic prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4895” on 2011-12-17
• Grognor estimated 70% on 2011-12-18
• fergus estimated 40% on 2011-12-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2011-12-22
• Grognor said “I no longer believe 70% is reasonable. Seems far too high.” on 2012-01-04
• gwern said “December referrals so far have peaked at 804 a day, averaging more like 440 daily: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/85192141/Analytics%20www.gwern.net%20Direct%20Traffic%2020121201-20121216.pdf marking right. maybe next year…” on 2012-12-17
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-12-17.
• gwern said “hah whups, I clicked wrong! actual data is http://dl.dropbox.com/u/85192141/Analytics%20www.gwern.net%20Referral%20Traffic%2020121201-20121216.pdf exact average: 449.56 visits on the 16 days” on 2012-12-17