In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).

Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-12-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-12-25
• RobertLumley estimated 15% and said “10 years is a long time. Initially had this at 20%.” on 2011-12-25
• papermachine estimated 30% and said “Pretty obvious problems. Surely can do better.” on 2011-12-25
• gwern said “FWIW, I’ve been keen on collaborative voting & filtering since starting on /. in like 2003. so this is a pretty stable preference of mine” on 2011-12-25
• gwern said “and papermachine, this isn’t saying I think reddit/lw karma will be ideal just better than nothing (like OB past/present)” on 2011-12-25
• chemotaxis101 estimated 20% on 2011-12-25
• fergus estimated 5% on 2011-12-26
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2011-12-27
• Grognor estimated 12% on 2011-12-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-19
• D0TheMath estimated 25% on 2021-12-18
• JoshuaZ said “So, Gwern, what’s your verdict?” on 2021-12-24
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-12-24.
• gwern said “OB/SSC/ACX/Substack in general continue to not impress me with the utility of non-voting. So I didn’t change my mind.” on 2021-12-24