There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012.

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Arenamontanus estimated 66% on 2009-10-14
• max estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
• max judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
• Matt judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
• im estimated 80% on 2009-10-15
• anonym judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
• anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 95% and said “The probabilities are very different for “incident occurring” and that plus “it being reported”.” on 2009-10-17
• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-10-19
• kallman estimated 90% and said “no doubt in my mind, but treating it like airplane crashes – not neccessarily every year.” on 2010-11-23

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