There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010.

Created by Arenamontanus 11 months ago; known in about 1 month

• Arenamontanus is fence sitting 11 months ago
• Jack estimated 85% against 11 months ago
• Vladimir_Golovin estimated 97% against 10 months ago
• faws estimated 92% against 10 months ago
• Pavitra estimated 96% against 10 months ago
• gwern estimated 98% against and said “I can’t think of any plausible such accidents. Even ferry accidents in the Third world don’t involve more than a few hundred people.” about 1 month ago

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