'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-12-31
• gwern said ““a system with basic vision, basic sound processing, basic movement control, and basic language abilities, with all of these things being essentially learnt rather than preprogrammed…”” on 2011-12-31
• gwern said ““…It will also be able to solve a range of simple problems, including novel ones.” http://www.vetta.org/2011/12/goodbye-2011-hello-2012/” on 2011-12-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2011-12-31
• endoself said “My internal model of Shane is surprised by that post, though I did not have much confidence in that model.” on 2011-12-31
• endoself said “Does “proto-AGI” imply that a full AGI will not be developed in 8 years?” on 2011-12-31
• Elithrion estimated 20% on 2013-02-01
• lavalamp estimated 30% on 2013-02-03
• Qiaochu estimated 10% on 2013-02-04
• Tuxedage estimated 30% on 2013-02-06
• halfwit estimated 30% on 2013-06-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 60% 9 days ago
• JoshuaZ estimated 19% 9 days ago

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