'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-12-31
• gwern said ““a system with basic vision, basic sound processing, basic movement control, and basic language abilities, with all of these things being essentially learnt rather than preprogrammed…”” on 2011-12-31
• gwern said ““…It will also be able to solve a range of simple problems, including novel ones.” http://www.vetta.org/2011/12/goodbye-2011-hello-2012/” on 2011-12-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2011-12-31
• endoself said “My internal model of Shane is surprised by that post, though I did not have much confidence in that model.” on 2011-12-31
• endoself said “Does “proto-AGI” imply that a full AGI will not be developed in 8 years?” on 2011-12-31
• Elithrion estimated 20% on 2013-02-01
• lavalamp estimated 30% on 2013-02-03
• Qiaochu estimated 10% on 2013-02-04
• Tuxedage estimated 30% on 2013-02-06
• halfwit estimated 30% on 2013-06-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 60% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 19% on 2016-10-10
• wassname estimated 20% on 2018-08-12
• pranomostro estimated 20% and said “This feels like cheating.” on 2018-12-19
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2018-12-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Not much time left. ” on 2018-12-19
• Baeboo estimated 10% on 2018-12-20
• galen estimated 1% on 2019-12-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2019-12-29
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-31.
• Jayson Virissimo said “This is already closed, since the time in the prediction has already passed, but I wonder if had Deep Mind’s Gato generalist agent launched before the deadline, this prediction would have been judged correct.” on 2022-05-15
• JoshuaZ said “I would have been inclined to judge it correct in that circumstance.” on 2022-05-15
• EliTyre said “So close.” on 2022-08-31