On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

• Porejide estimated 75% on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 55% and said “hadn’t heard of half of them, and Harry Potter’s inclusion is sheer recentism – lots to dislike with that one” on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2012-01-02
• muflax estimated 65% on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 50% and said “Ignorant of subject matter” on 2012-01-03
• muflax said “There are 5 movies from 2011 on the list right now.” on 2013-01-01
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.