On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb's top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

• Porejide estimated 50% on 2012-01-02
• Porejide said “note “from” means “released in”, the date in parentheses to the right of the movie title on the list” on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 40% and said “currently 5 from 2011, on Jan 1, 2012. (A Separation, Warrior, Harry Potter Part 2, Drive, and Girl w/Dragon Tattoo). any reason to expect 2012 to be 2 or 3 movies better than 2011?” on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2012-01-02
• Porejide said “Currently 2010 has 7 and 2009 has 8, add in recency and I think it’s clear that 2011 was a down year. We’ll see!” on 2012-01-02
• Porejide   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-02.
• Porejide said “There are 6!” on 2013-01-02