Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “0.99 * 0.3 * 0.5 = .1485; original prediction: http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5ku5 subpredictions; Obama elsewhere, http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5067 and http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5066” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 21% on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ said “If such a split occurs then Obama’s election is almost certain. ” on 2012-01-02
• faws estimated 20% and said “If it’s almost certain why do you rate it at only ~61%? Or did you change your opinion on the probability of the split? ” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ said “faws, I assign an almost certain to Obama winning if Paul or Johnson gets the nomination. Otherwise the chance is much lower. ” on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 19% and said “2 implies 1 and 3” on 2012-01-03
• JoshuaZ said “No substantial split of the Tea Party. Marking wrong. ” on 2012-11-07
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-07.