There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US.

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• ChristianKl estimated 50% on 2009-10-15
• UnholySmoke judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-15.
• freyley judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
• freyley estimated 20% on 2009-10-15
• im estimated 20% on 2009-10-15
• Jack estimated 30% on 2009-10-16
• othercriteria estimated 15% on 2009-10-16
• anonym judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
• anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 12% on 2009-10-17
• refragable estimated 25% on 2009-10-28
• gwern estimated 2% on 2010-10-19

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