There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US.

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

  • ChristianKl estimated 50% on 2009-10-15
  • UnholySmoke  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-15.
  • freyley  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
  • freyley estimated 20% on 2009-10-15
  • im estimated 20% on 2009-10-15
  • Jack estimated 30% on 2009-10-16
  • othercriteria estimated 15% on 2009-10-16
  • anonym  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 12% on 2009-10-17
  • refragable estimated 25% on 2009-10-28
  • gwern estimated 2% on 2010-10-19
  • Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-10-14
  • gwern said “nope. all third-party candidates combined took like, maybe 2 or 3% in their biggest states IIRCon 2012-12-31
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.

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