Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year.

Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.

• kiba estimated 57% on 2012-01-10
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 50% on 2012-01-10
• modulus estimated 65% on 2012-01-10
• RobertLumley said “I don’t understand this. Is it 25% now and it’s going to collapse to 10% or less? 25% through 10% or less doesn’t make any sense.” on 2012-01-10
• kiba changed their prediction from “Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 25% through 10% or less by the end of this year.” on 2012-01-10
• gwern said “I think he means that it will be 10% or less by the end of the year, which implies it’ll fall to 25% at some point in the fall. I’d like to know more details – US smartphone market? as measured by whom? what’s current value?” on 2012-01-10
• kiba estimated 66% and said “My bad. I checked out the comscore, apple is already at around 25%ish.” on 2012-01-10
• smijer estimated 40% on 2012-01-10
• spqr0a1 estimated 25% on 2012-01-17
• RandomThinker estimated 10% and said “Pretty low. Apple is quite strong still. ” on 2012-03-06
• aelangovan estimated 20% on 2012-09-13
• learnmethis estimated 10% on 2012-09-26
• Qiaochu estimated 5% and said “http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57540923-94/samsung-outdoes-apple-2-to-1-in-smartphones-nokia-falters/” on 2012-11-09
• Mathir25 estimated 2% on 2012-12-06
• Random8042 estimated 32% on 2012-12-29
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-30.
• Qiaochu said “53%: http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/morning_call/2012/12/apple-smartphone-market-share-hits-53.html” on 2012-12-30
• kiba said “Qiaochu: Your links might be misleading. I have one source citing that android have 68.4% of the market. http://venturebeat.com/2013/01/28/android-captured-almost-70-global-smartphone-market-share-in-2012-apple-just-under-20/” on 2013-02-20