Night 15: pill was Vitamin D

Created by gwern on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-15.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2012-01-15
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-15.
• gwern said “terrible night, like 30 minutes to sleep and woken up early to boot, but not vitamin d’s fault, it seems” on 2012-01-15