HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01

Anubhav estimated 50% on 2012-01-21
Anubhav said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7jd/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/50tt” on 2012-01-21
gwern estimated 65% and said “best lies are the truth” on 2012-01-21
HonoreDB estimated 59% on 2012-01-21
Anubhav said “gwern… so that’s 50% probability to him killing her, and 65% probability to a subset of him not killing her?” on 2012-01-22
vi estimated 70% on 2012-01-22
gwern said “this is more a question of is Lucius telling the truth. good liars minimize the lies they must tell, and they don’t make bold lies which one would want to check – and lucius is a very good liar” on 2012-01-22
Anubhav said “I have no idea how you’re reading these…. The predictions are about Dumbledore killing her, not Lucius telling the truth about him killing her. ” on 2012-01-23
JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, I believe that gwern is referencing the fact that Draco probably heard about how Narcissa died from Lucius. ” on 2012-01-23
Anubhav said “How on earth is that even relevant to what I was saying? The only way for the sum of this probability and this one http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5417 to exceed 100% is if there are scenarios in which he both killed and didn’t kill her.” on 2012-01-23
Anubhav said “(which there probably are, but it doesn’t look like that’s what gwern’s thinking of)” on 2012-01-23
Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-01-25
lavalamp estimated 45% on 2012-03-26
Anubhav changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did.” on 2012-04-09
PlacidPlatypus estimated 30% and said “It seems pretty clear that Dumbledore has claimed or at least implied (which I count) that he did, so this is pretty much just my estimate for him not killing her.” on 2012-04-19
Oscar_Cunningham estimated 50% on 2012-04-20
Sarokrae estimated 75% 23 days ago

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