HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk.

Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2012-01-21
• gwern said “see http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/WMG/HarryPotterAndTheMethodsOfRationality for the arguments” on 2012-01-21
• drethelin estimated 1% and said “conflicts with word of god” on 2012-01-21
• Grognor estimated 4% on 2012-01-21
• gwern said “drethelin: which word of god? I don’t remember anything bearing on the issue” on 2012-01-22
• Anubhav estimated 1% and said “Ur jnf fhccbfrq gb or Ibyqrzbeg, evtug? Although Eliezer could’ve changed his mind, but I doubt that happened.” on 2012-01-22
• HonoreDB estimated 2% on 2012-01-22
• ahartell estimated 10% and said “I would find this super cool and elegant, but it doesn’t seem super likely.” on 2012-02-03
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
• gwern changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk.” on 2012-04-09
• gwern estimated 7% and said “updating on latest chapters” on 2012-04-09
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MOR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk.” on 2012-04-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
• Sarokrae estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
• dhoe estimated 1% on 2013-02-03
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-21” on 2014-01-23
• DEA7TH estimated 1% and said “Quirrell is possibly as strong as Salazar, if not stronger. ” on 2014-02-28
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.