No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) —knb

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2012-01-24
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5o3k” on 2012-01-24
• endoself estimated 75% on 2012-01-27
• chemotaxis101 said “Related http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3754” on 2012-01-30
• kilobug estimated 80% on 2012-08-23
• William-Quixote estimated 95% on 2012-09-09
• gwern said “might as well mark it wrong. neither palin nor any of the other nutjobs ran on a Tea Party platform etc” on 2012-11-04
• gwern said “er, mark right” on 2012-11-04
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-04.
• JoshuaZ said “Maybe we should wait? It is possible that Gary Johnson will hit 5% although it looks very unlikely at this point. ” on 2012-11-05