United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) —knb

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-02.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-01-24
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5o3k” on 2012-01-24
• Grognor estimated 6% and said “what makes this possible, likely, conceivable, or elsewise? only reason I don’t say 1% is because gwern says 40.” on 2012-01-25
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2012-01-25
• William-Quixote estimated 15% on 2012-09-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-09-09
• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-09-10
• gwern said “per knb” on 2013-02-02
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-02-02.