HP MoR: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-01-24
• gwern on 2012-01-24
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5484” on 2012-01-24
• Leo estimated 25% on 2012-01-27
• kallman estimated 10% and said “Less than 4? Hasn’t he confirmed to have four waiting to be posted when he’s ready of at least that length already?” on 2012-02-04
• gwern said “prelude and first 3 parts of taboo tradeoffs falsify this prediction – that’s 4 2+ page chapters. marking wrong.” on 2012-04-04
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-04.
• gwern changed their prediction from “<4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster” on 2012-04-09