“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-02-18.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2012-01-24
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5qpo?context=3” on 2012-01-24
• gwern estimated 0% and said “top 5: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5483” on 2012-01-24
• gwern estimated 70% and said “whups” on 2012-01-25
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-01-25
• Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-18.