I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no.
Created by Leo 28 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged right by Leo 23 days ago.
- Leo estimated 95% 28 days ago
- RobertLumley said “Hope you’re wrong. Good luck.” 28 days ago
- Anubhav estimated 80% and said “Ah, memories…” 28 days ago
- faws estimated 75% 28 days ago
- JoshuaZ estimated 80% and said “Conjunction issues make me reduce the chance. But projected confidence in this sort of context can drastically influence success. Good luck. ” 28 days ago
- saturn estimated 43% and said “Based on 50% chance of asking and 85% chance the answer is no.” 28 days ago
- Anubhav estimated 56% and said “Mmm, right. A lot of people predicting they’re gonna turn him down might be demoralising, thus reducing the chance of his actually asking them out.” 27 days ago
- Jayson_Virissimo estimated 50% 27 days ago
- RobertLumley said “That’s why conjoined predictions are bad, Anubhav. :-) At any rate, I still say go for it. Nothing to lose, everything to gain.” 27 days ago
- Leo said “Y’all are far underestimating the probability I’ll ask.” 27 days ago
- RobertLumley said “That’s largely true empirically. I’m wondering why everyone’s estimates are so low. Leo himself assigns at least a 95% probability that he will ask.” 27 days ago
- Anubhav estimated 70% and said “Ratcheting back up. (80% chance of asking, 90% chance of rejection.)” 26 days ago
- Leo said “Seriously guys still far overestimating P(~ask), it’s basically P(major accident), if I could get cold feet or fail to run into them I would have put it in my initial estimate, also I sound like Dinosaur comics.” 26 days ago
- Anubhav estimated 90% and said “OK, 90% chance of rejection then. ” 26 days ago
- bobpage estimated 24% 26 days ago
- Grognor estimated 55% and said “Anubhav, you know, each of those estimates goes into your permanent statistics. Changing them every time you hear something new will tremendously overweight your transient fleeting feelings.” 26 days ago
- Anubhav said “One man’s ‘transient fleeting feelings’ is another man’s ‘updating on new information’. (But I will be very annoyed if Leo turns out to be overconfident about his crush saying ‘no’.)” 26 days ago
- Julian Pulgarin said “This is awesome.” 23 days ago
- Leo judged this prediction right 23 days ago.
- Leo said “They made a sad trombone sound upon seeing me enter the result here.” 23 days ago
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction