Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010.

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

  • InTrade estimated 89% on 2009-10-16
  • othercriteria estimated 70% on 2009-10-16
  • ChristianKl estimated 90% on 2009-10-16
  • prase estimated 94% on 2009-10-16
  • Arenamontanus estimated 70% on 2009-10-16
  • anonym  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 60% on 2009-10-17
  • dshiller estimated 78% on 2009-10-20
  • faws estimated 90% on 2009-10-22
  • drewyallop estimated 75% on 2009-12-06
  • ozymandias estimated 90% on 2010-06-20
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2010-07-29.

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