Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days.
Created by JoshuaZ 27 days ago; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 13 days ago.
- JoshuaZ estimated 20% 27 days ago
- RobertLumley said “Could you start making predictions like this that the rest of us can’t possibly estimate private?” 27 days ago
- Anubhav said “If that turned into site policy, gwern would have to privatise ~90% of his predictions. Just saying.” 27 days ago
- Anubhav said “I’m guessing your real problem is with the newsfeed on the main page. (Too easy to flood, no way to see older stories.)” 27 days ago
- RobertLumley said “Yes, Anubhav, it is. And this obviously isn’t the only one that’s like this (I think you probably have some to, but I’m not sure) but there’s been some discussion of trying to make it private.” 27 days ago
- gwern estimated 25% and said “anubhav: my ratio isn’t quite that bad.” 27 days ago
- RobertLumley said “Gwern’s aren’t quite as bad, since I can just see: Night 6, and immediately ignore them. Joshua’s I have to read the entire prediction before I realize it’s a private matter.” 27 days ago
- Anubhav said “How about beginning such predictions with [meh] ?” 27 days ago
- JoshuaZ said “How about personal predictions start with [personal]? That’s a bit more self-explanatory than [meh]? ” 27 days ago
- RobertLumley said “Either would be fine to me, but I don’t see why you wouldn’t just keep the prediction private if you’d take the time to type [personal].” 27 days ago
- Leo said “It’s common to want others’ estimates on personal matters! E.g. the one prediction I posted, Jayson’s “will reach [goal]” ones.” 26 days ago
- Anubhav said “[personal] takes longer to type. How about [pers]? But really, this doesn’t solve the problem that putting it up HIDES older predictions people might be more interested in.” 26 days ago
- ahartell said “Also, sometimes making them public increasing the amount to which you’ll want to fulfill the prediction, e.g., “I will go start exercising”.” 26 days ago
- JoshuaZ said “Hmm, this is the sort of thing which we could solve a bit if we had formal categorization of predictions. Or even if one could just scroll back indefinitely the predictions that had been made rather than just the last few. ” 26 days ago
- RobertLumley said “Categorization is definitely best. But we don’t have that now. :-/” 26 days ago
- Grognor said “The predictions like “I will go swimming by Arbitrary Date” are the biggest problem with this website, above all the bugs and missing features.” 26 days ago
- Jayson_Virissimo estimated 5% 24 days ago
- bobpage said “Perhaps we should be able to ‘follow’ other users’ personal predictions.” 23 days ago
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong 13 days ago.
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