A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years.

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.

• siscoking estimated 50% on 2012-01-29
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2012-01-29
• RobertLumley estimated 10% on 2012-01-29
• RobertLumley said “Some measure of how much 1 kiloton is for those that don’t know would be useful: Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were 15 kilotons each.” on 2012-01-29
• Anubhav estimated 30% and said “Didn’t think about nuclear testing.” on 2012-01-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2012-01-29
• gwern estimated 15% and said “nuclear testing too huh” on 2012-01-29
• endoself estimated 20% on 2012-02-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Updating on time gone by and other issues. ” on 2015-11-06
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “Only 1 year left so chances are low.” on 2015-11-08
• themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-10-10
• Lachann estimated 1% on 2016-11-11
• spqr0a1 estimated 1% on 2017-01-15
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2017-01-25
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-30.