HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary.

Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.

Grognor estimated 20% on 2012-02-01
HonoreDB estimated 95% on 2012-02-01
gwern said “so what is this excluding? records of magical spells? fascinating previous owners like Voldemort?” on 2012-02-01
HamletHenna estimated 39% on 2012-02-02
Anubhav estimated 40% on 2012-02-02
ahartell said “Apparently, Eliezer said “Gur qvnel bs Ebtre Onpba jnf abg vagraqrq gb or eryrinag nsgre vgf vagebqhpgvba, whfg gb or n punenpgre zbzrag sbe Dhveeryy naq Uneel. Qhr gb sna ernpgvba, gur nhgube unf qrpvqrq gb erghea gb vg…” ” on 2012-02-03
ahartell said ““…Vg ernyyl vf gur zntvpny rkcrevzragny wbheany bs Ebtre Onpba. Uneel unfa’g vairfgvtngrq vg fb sne orpnhfr ur qbrfa’g fcrnx Yngva, naq qbrfa’g qner nfx nalobql gb genafyngr vg…” ” on 2012-02-03
ahartell said ““Ur’yy riraghnyyl uvg ba gur vqrn bs nfxvat n tubfg gb genafyngr vg, fvapr tubfgf qba’g unir zhpu ybat-grez zrzbel bs riragf nsgre gurve qrngu, naq n fhssvpvragyl byq tubfg jvyy xabj Yngva…”” on 2012-02-03
ahartell said ““Sebz guvf, ur jvyy yrnea bs bar hfrshy qvfpbirel Onpba znqr ertneqvat jnaqyrff zntvp: cbffvoyl fbzr fbeg bs evghny, be cbffvoyl n jnl gb unearff gur fbeg bs cebgrpgvir jnaqyrff zntvp jvmneq puvyqera unir.”” on 2012-02-03
ahartell said “Found here: http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?t=62115&p=2511086” on 2012-02-03
ahartell said “I was about to rate this pretty low, but then I saw HonoreDB’s very high prediction. If the quoted text is accurate (and presumably HonoreDB would think so) then I would judge this prediction wrong, but my interpretation might be wrong.” on 2012-02-03
Anubhav estimated 80% and said “Revising as per word of Kira.. er… God. I’m very surprised he’d divulge so much, though, given his hatred of spoilers. (ahartell: Eliezer might change his mind. That’s always a possibility.)” on 2012-02-03
ahartell said “I’m think missing something though, because the username to which that quotation belongs is HonereDB.” on 2012-02-04
ahartell said “I agree that he might change his mind. So anyway, what makes it “just a diary”. I would have thought that it would not fit this requirement if the quoted text is true.” on 2012-02-04
HonoreDB said “I was there when he said it. The 95% is my probability that Eliezer was telling the truth and won’t change his mind. It’s high because of his new fear of plotbunnies, and that he described the spoiler as a treat for meetup attendees.” on 2012-02-04
HonoreDB said “I would count the rot13’d scenario as “just a diary”. If Grognor wouldn’t, then my estimate is 1%. ” on 2012-02-04
Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2012-02-06
endoself estimated 90% on 2012-02-11
Anubhav estimated 50% and said “I have a new mental model of Eliezer. Based on this model, I conclude that Eliezer was very likely to be lying out of his teeth.” on 2012-03-17
JoshuaZ said “What prompted this change in model? ” on 2012-03-17
Anubhav said “This: http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/602l (incidentally, that should’ve been “lying through his teeth*”)” on 2012-03-19
Grognor changed their prediction from “[HPMoR] Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary.” on 2012-04-09
PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% and said “If nothing else, Quirrel did say it was soup-proof. So it has some sort of magical properties. On the other hand, has EY been caught actively misleading readers before?” on 2012-04-19
gwern said “no mention in recent MoR updates. bumping half a year” on 2013-01-26
Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-16” on 2013-01-26
Osuniev estimated 90% on 2013-04-14
ShIxtan estimated 80% on 2013-04-30
holycow81 estimated 70% on 2013-05-27
75th estimated 90% on 2013-07-13
azax1 estimated 55% on 2013-07-19
curtis95112 estimated 35% on 2013-07-25
Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-26” on 2013-07-28
Pavitra estimated 2% on 2013-08-27
Xammer estimated 80% on 2013-09-29
Osuniev estimated 15% and said “THinking again : it could just be a Tom Riddle Diary disguised as something Harry likes. In canon, to be possessed by an Horcrux you had to get attached to it.” on 2014-04-19
dpchalmers estimated 86% on 2014-11-29
Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-10-26” on 2015-01-01
75th judged this prediction right on 2015-03-03.
75th said “He made it a horcrux at the last minute, but when it was given to Harry and for most of the story, it was just a diary, which is the spirit of the question.” on 2015-03-03