There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012.

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

  • anonym estimated 4% on 2009-10-17
  • Arenamontanus estimated 2% on 2009-10-19
  • dshiller estimated 1% on 2009-10-20
  • gzero estimated 2% on 2009-11-07
  • gwern estimated 2% on 2010-10-19
  • faul_sname estimated 2% and said “That would have to be quite an earthquake, the last >=7.0 in the area resulted in 2 deaths.on 2011-07-01
  • Konkvistador estimated 99% on 2011-07-21
  • bobpage estimated 1% and said “Konkvistador, did you mean 99% against?on 2011-09-23
  • bobpage said “If not, I worry ;)on 2011-09-23
  • army1987 estimated 0% on 2011-10-03
  • army1987 estimated 1% and said “one percent per bimester = average of one every 8 years… even that is too much, but the site won’t let me enter decimalson 2011-10-03
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.

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