Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030

Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01

• gwern estimated 80% on 2012-02-29
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_players#20th_century https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_Go#Recent_results” on 2012-02-29
• Jayson Virissimo said “inflation adjusted?” on 2012-02-29
• gwern said “yeah (not that I expect it to make a huge difference)” on 2012-02-29
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-03-01
• RandomThinker estimated 75% and said “20 years is a long time.” on 2012-03-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 70% on 2012-03-30
• CarlShulman estimated 71% on 2012-07-18
• CarlShulman estimated 77% on 2012-07-18
• lukeprog estimated 75% on 2012-09-04
• Thelas estimated 75% on 2013-04-01
• gwern said “thinking more about it, I’m not sure it’ll be 100% clear – I would be very surprised if the then current world champ (probably japanese or korean) would ever agree to a real match” on 2013-04-01
• Michael Dickens estimated 80% on 2013-12-19
• lavalamp estimated 90% on 2013-12-19
• adbge estimated 85% on 2013-12-20
• ​ estimated 90% on 2014-02-01
• Mati estimated 80% on 2014-02-14
• lettergram estimated 90% on 2014-03-27
• procran estimated 90% on 2014-03-27
• rebellionkid estimated 90% on 2014-06-12
• Ben Doherty estimated 70% on 2014-06-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2014-06-12
• Neznans estimated 95% on 2014-06-19
• aarongertler estimated 96% on 2014-06-20
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2016-02-01
• Houshalter estimated 99% on 2016-02-01
• CarlShulman estimated 98% on 2016-02-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-05-01
• pranomostro estimated 99% on 2018-11-10
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2018-11-10
• pranomostro estimated 90% on 2018-12-15