Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

  • TheScholar estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
  • DanArmak estimated 1% and said “The only way this’ll happen is if humanity (and any descendants capable of being religious) go extinct before 2030.on 2009-10-17
  • Larks estimated 3% on 2009-10-17
  • Robin Z. estimated 0% on 2009-10-17
  • trismet estimated 0% on 2009-10-17
  • anonym estimated 1% on 2009-10-17
  • Jack estimated 0% on 2009-10-18
  • Arenamontanus estimated 1% on 2009-10-19
  • faws estimated 1% on 2009-10-22
  • othercriteria estimated 1% on 2009-11-15
  • evtujo  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-11-16.
  • Jack  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
  • Jack  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
  • ledflyd estimated 10% and said “If humans are still around, I think that some church will have power… whether this is still Catholicism (doubtful), Islam (maybe) or scientology.on 2009-11-16
  • olimay estimated 10% and said “The destruction of humanity and other subjectively extreme scenarios would trivially fulfill this prediction.on 2009-11-26
  • MrHen estimated 99% on 2010-02-03
  • MrHen estimated 1% on 2010-02-03
  • TheScholar said “The prediction was made in the confidence that humanity (in some form) will still be around by 2030.on 2010-02-11
  • gwern estimated 1% on 2010-09-16
  • TheScholar said “I should have made it two separate predictions (existence and political influence).on 2010-09-18
  • Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-05-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-05-26
  • Malgidus estimated 1% and said “Existential risk only. I think they will diminish, but not by more than 50%.on 2013-03-27
  • Unknowns estimated 0% on 2015-04-27
  • themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-04-11
  • jesselevine said “Please add scope. Whole world? on 2016-04-11
  • JoshuaZ said “jesse, I think that was the intended scope. on 2016-04-11
  • jesselevine estimated 0% and said “Okay then. Humanity will definitely still be around in 2030 in my opinion.. I believe people are a little overly apacolyptic these days on 2016-04-11
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 0% on 2016-04-11
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Wanted to post 0 but I choose to hedge my bets.on 2016-04-21

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