Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

• TheScholar estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
• DanArmak estimated 1% and said “The only way this’ll happen is if humanity (and any descendants capable of being religious) go extinct before 2030.” on 2009-10-17
• Larks estimated 3% on 2009-10-17
• Robin Z. estimated 0% on 2009-10-17
• trismet estimated 0% on 2009-10-17
• anonym estimated 1% on 2009-10-17
• Jack estimated 0% on 2009-10-18
• Arenamontanus estimated 1% on 2009-10-19
• faws estimated 1% on 2009-10-22
• othercriteria estimated 1% on 2009-11-15
• evtujo judged this prediction wrong on 2009-11-16.
• Jack judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
• Jack judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
• ledflyd estimated 10% and said “If humans are still around, I think that some church will have power… whether this is still Catholicism (doubtful), Islam (maybe) or scientology.” on 2009-11-16
• olimay estimated 10% and said “The destruction of humanity and other subjectively extreme scenarios would trivially fulfill this prediction.” on 2009-11-26
• MrHen estimated 99% on 2010-02-03
• MrHen estimated 1% on 2010-02-03
• TheScholar said “The prediction was made in the confidence that humanity (in some form) will still be around by 2030.” on 2010-02-11
• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-09-16
• TheScholar said “I should have made it two separate predictions (existence and political influence).” on 2010-09-18
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-05-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-05-26

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