If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115.

Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.

muflax estimated 90% on 2012-03-07
muflax said “withdrawal if no test taken and false if <115, any standard online test counts (like http://www.iqout.com)” on 2012-03-07
wallowinmaya estimated 90% on 2012-03-07
gwern said “some IQ tests are normed pretty harshly; I got a 115 on one Raven’s test online (iqtest.dk)” on 2012-03-07
muflax estimated 75% and said “huh, that seriously surprises me, I thought they all use 15 points = 1SD these days” on 2012-03-07
muflax said “(updating in case he uses such a harsh test)” on 2012-03-07
JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2012-03-08
muflax said “personal communication, it’s <115” on 2012-03-08
muflax judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-08.
wallowinmaya said “That wasn’t a typical IQ test. ” on 2012-03-09
muflax said “As far as I’m concerned it’s legit, but the cause is probably more like non-neurotypical weird results (which happen) or lack of ability to concentrate, rather than actual lack of intelligence.” on 2012-03-09
army1987 said “I can see how iqout.com might underestimate some people’s IQ, as 45 seconds per individual question is pretty fast. OTOH I’m quite surprised gwern only scored 115 on iqtest.dk.” on 2012-03-10
gwern said “Well, if you want my excuses… it wasn’t my best day and the computer lab was a bit loud. I think I might also have been a little short on caffeine.” on 2012-03-10
Anubhav said “lol, IQ tests. Serious Business, aren’t they? (I’m going to take both of these tests so I can laugh about my low results later. But not now. There’s an HPMOR chapter to read.)” on 2012-03-12
Alexander Kruel said “I just scored 104 here http://iqtest.dk/ – don’t know how accurate that test is though…” on 2012-10-21