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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel

Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

  • Grognor estimated 26% on 2012-03-16
  • Grognor on 2012-03-16
  • spqr0a1 estimated 55% on 2012-03-16
  • gwern estimated 45% and said “last chapter drastically increased my confidence – quirrel implies dumbledore has cleared him & his past, but dumbledore is looking for voldemort’s spirit and not asking quirrel angry questionson 2012-03-16
  • Grognor said “by ‘last chapter’, gwern means 79on 2012-03-17
  • Leo estimated 5% and said “But Quirrell was Voldemort and kept his memories, so he still is. Two copies running around?on 2012-03-19
  • lavalamp estimated 40% on 2012-03-26
  • RobertLumley estimated 30% on 2012-03-29
  • Grognor changed their prediction from “[HPMoR] Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel (a la http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/60bb )” on 2012-04-09
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • Sarokrae estimated 5% on 2012-04-29
  • Osuniev estimated 40% on 2013-04-14
  • William-Quixote estimated 15% on 2013-07-01
  • Smaug estimated 10% on 2013-11-23
  • Smaug estimated 5% on 2013-12-15
  • qznc estimated 30% on 2014-07-14
  • Osuniev estimated 10% on 2014-08-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2014-09-23
  • Emmanuel M. Smith estimated 40% on 2014-10-24
  • from3004 estimated 40% on 2014-10-24
  • Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2013-12-01” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR_: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel (a la http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry_potter_and_the_methods_ofrationality/60bb )” on 2015-01-01
  • Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR_: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel (a la http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry\potter\and\_the\methods\of\rationality/60bb )” on 2015-01-01
  • gwern said “fixed formatting of title by removing URLon 2015-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-20.