HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “don’t ask me how this would convince Lucius to drop the charges or the Wizengamot not to convict, I didn’t make it…” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
• Alsadius estimated 0% and said “It slipping out is conceivable, but it’s not actually a solution, and it’s expensive. This will not imaginably be used intentionally by someone as intelligent as Harry. ” on 2012-03-23
• Rejoyce estimated 0% and said “WHY? That’s just a really, really dumb move.” on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 0% and said “0.0005%” on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-03-23
• Porejide estimated 0% on 2012-03-24
• RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
• lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 2% on 2012-03-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape” on 2012-04-09