HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “again, way too crude and unlikely to win any substantive victory” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 2% on 2012-03-23
• beo_shaffer estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
• Rejoyce estimated 10% and said “Flashy but unlikely, too much revealed just from this one action (breaking out Bella, non-animal Patronus, etc)” on 2012-03-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 15% on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 10% on 2012-03-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2012-03-25
• lavalamp estimated 13% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 2% and said ““involve” is broad — still, that would leak too much information w.r.t. bella’s escape.” on 2012-03-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors” on 2012-04-09