HP MoR: Priori Incantatum

Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.

• gryffinp estimated 78% on 2012-03-23
• gryffinp said “""It is questionable," the boy said, “to put it mildly, whether Hermione Granger actually cast that Blood-Cooling Charm.”I mean come on it’s right there. See also CH. 13 and CH. 26” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 15% and said “Quirrellmort isn’t stupid. ” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav estimated 3% and said “Actually… no reason in particular to favour this hypothesis.” on 2012-03-23
• gryffinp said “I think you’re premature in assuming that Quirrelmort is behind this.” on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “what exactly is this prediction?” on 2012-03-23
• Anubhav said “’Harry’s solution will involve using Prior Incantatem on Hermione’s wand, and it will word (ie, no Blood-Cooling charm).’” on 2012-03-23
• HonoreDB estimated 4% and said “Too obvious, and IIRC we don’t actually know of a deliberate way to see further than the last spell a wand cast.” on 2012-03-23
• gwern said “indeed. what, quirrel won’t remember to grab hermione’s wand and cast a chilling? actually, wouldn’t someone’s wand have to have been used in order to show up at st mungo’s with an appropriately injured draco…? ” on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 5% and said “would violate the idiot ball rule” on 2012-03-23
• Alsadius estimated 1% and said “25% that it will be tried, 1% chance that a negative result will convince anyone of anything(since it only shows one spell, a negative result is meaningless)” on 2012-03-24
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• gryffinp changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Priori Incantatum” on 2012-04-09