HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry's actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails).

Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• Grognor estimated 40% on 2012-03-23
• Isaac estimated 30% on 2012-03-24
• Alsadius estimated 20% and said “We have good theories, but we haven’t nearly spanned the solution space. Quite plausible. ” on 2012-03-24
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-03-24
• gwern estimated 10% and said “I think we’ve hit diminishing returns – most new suggestions are just slight variations. brainstorming literature implies the bulk of solutions are generated quickly, IIRC” on 2012-03-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-03-25
• RobertLumley estimated 37% on 2012-03-26
• paulovsk estimated 50% on 2012-03-26
• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2012-03-26
• RobertLumley estimated 15% on 2012-03-26
• quicklystarfish estimated 40% on 2012-03-26
• gimpf estimated 20% on 2012-03-27
• gimpf estimated 25% and said “Got too much probability left.” on 2012-03-27
• HonoreDB estimated 20% on 2012-03-27
• gwern said “since eliezer said that he was surprised how much readers guessed, and pretty much all the elemtns are there, marking wrong” on 2012-03-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-28.
• Grognor changed their prediction from “[HPMoR] Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry's actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails).” on 2012-04-09