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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 90% on 2012-04-04
  • gwern said “note: this will be judged to exclude epilogues, omakes, ‘aftermaths’, sequels, etc. the story refers to Harry’s main arc.on 2012-04-04
  • Sarokrae estimated 95% on 2012-04-05
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: story completed by Harry's first year of Hogwarts” on 2012-04-05
  • Isaac said “what if it continues into the summer break?on 2012-04-05
  • spqr0a1 estimated 80% on 2012-04-09
  • lavalamp estimated 40% and said “I think it will end between first and second year.on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 95% and said “I’m assuming “continues into the summer break” also counts.on 2012-04-10
  • LauralH estimated 90% on 2012-04-11
  • Ken estimated 75% on 2012-04-11
  • Ami estimated 90% and said “Before the second year startson 2012-04-18
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% and said “It’s well into the spring now and it seems like the main plot is just getting started.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 80% and said “Before start of second year.on 2012-04-20
  • jesyspa estimated 0% on 2012-05-13
  • ChristianKl estimated 90% on 2013-10-29
  • Vulture estimated 95% on 2014-02-04
  • Calien estimated 95% on 2014-09-01
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.