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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2012-04-04
  • ArisKatsaris said “What are you doing, gwern? You should be assigning greater probability to each successive year, given how you phrased the predictions.on 2012-04-05
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: story completed by Harry's second year of Hogwarts” on 2012-04-05
  • Isaac estimated 5% on 2012-04-05
  • lavalamp estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 1% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • jesyspa estimated 30% on 2012-05-13
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.