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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 2% on 2012-04-04
  • gwern on 2012-04-04
  • gwern said “see caveat about judging in first predictionon 2012-04-04
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: story completed by Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts” on 2012-04-05
  • Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-04-05
  • lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 3% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% and said “EY seems decent at having time pass offscreen without jarring time skips, avoiding the “something happens every day and in-universe time slows to a crawl” problem.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 15% on 2012-04-20
  • jesyspa estimated 20% on 2012-05-13
  • jesyspa estimated 30% and said “Realised my probabilities weren’t adding up.on 2012-05-13
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.