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HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-05
  • Sarokrae estimated 10% on 2012-04-06
  • lavalamp estimated 15% on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
  • qznc estimated 5% on 2014-07-14
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “Azkaban still hasn’t come up, like, at all…on 2015-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.