HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2012-04-05
• Sarokrae estimated 15% on 2012-04-05
• lavalamp estimated 5% and said “There’s gotta be more to it than just killing someone…” on 2012-04-10
• gwern said “do we think that harry would recognize a Horcrux spell slipped in among the usual anti-surveillance spells?” on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 1% and said “Eh, no. ” on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% and said “I feel like the creation of a Horcrux would take more ritual than he could just slip in there.” on 2012-04-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
• MTC estimated 1% on 2013-03-20
• 75th estimated 1% on 2013-07-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-03.