HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 12% on 2012-04-07
• ahartell estimated 5% on 2012-04-09
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 4% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 0% on 2012-04-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-09-17
• ChristianKl estimated 65% on 2013-10-29
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.