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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

  • gwern estimated 55% on 2012-04-08
  • Michael Stevens estimated 40% on 2012-04-08
  • ahartell estimated 30% and said “Don’t people think that Quirrel has the Resurrection Stone?” on 2012-04-09
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 18% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
  • Flailingjunk estimated 5% on 2012-04-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 3% and said “It’s supposed to be unique, it’s implied Riddle has it as in canon, Dumbledore’s behavior in Ch.39 is inconsistent with this.” on 2012-04-23
  • DEA7TH estimated 15% and said “The real one is supposed to have symbols on it. Also, transfiguring a magical artifact? I doubt it” on 2014-02-28
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
  • Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-02-24.
  • Anubhav said “We know now that the Resurrection Stone is on the same ring as it was in canon, and Quirrellmort has it. ” on 2015-02-24