HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-04-09
• gwern said “Hat & Cloak’s groundhog day attack was Obliviation, IIRC. this prediction would falsify Harry’s theory, obviously” on 2012-04-09
• gwern said “BTW everyone, the full collection of HP MoR predictions: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/bl4/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/ http://www.gwern.net/hpmor” on 2012-04-09
• quicklystarfish estimated 0% and said “0.01%” on 2012-04-10
• Futschi estimated 30% and said “It doesn’t have to be a memory charm if something posessed her / altered her behaviour strong enough so she in fact attempted to kill Draco.” on 2012-04-14
• gwern said “I think the reasoning there is that she would remember being possessed or altered, like Imperiused people remember being imperiused” on 2012-04-15
• disinter estimated 60% on 2012-04-17
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% and said “I assume mere Obliviation does not count? That could be used to cover up some other kind of mental coercion, e.g., possession, imperious.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• Flailingjunk estimated 1% on 2012-04-23
• quicklystarfish estimated 70% on 2013-03-03
• lavalamp estimated 70% and said “Assuming obliviation doesn’t count.” on 2013-03-03
• HonoreDB estimated 15% and said “I don’t think she was False-Memory-charmed until the night of the attack, but there’s little reason to think she wasn’t then.” on 2013-03-03
• simplicio estimated 10% on 2013-03-04
• player_03 estimated 40% and said “I’m pretty sure the encounter with Hat & Cloak would have been enough, even without a false memory charm. But an additional nudge before that battle would have helped.” on 2014-04-26
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.