HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be mentioned by name but not appear

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-04-09
• gwern said “expect him to not be mentioned at all” on 2012-04-09
• gwern said “original: http://lesswrong.com/lw/bl4/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/6a5b” on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 25% on 2012-04-10
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 50% on 2012-04-20
• gwern said “discussed in chapter 86; holding off on judgment because the context makes an appearance possible” on 2012-12-17
• Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-26.