Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017)

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-05-11
• RandomThinker said “Similar to an old prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3226 but that one’s too hard to judge” on 2012-05-11
• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-05-12
• Ken estimated 30% on 2012-05-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% on 2012-05-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2012-05-22
• RandomThinker said “came pretty close to hitting peaks earlier in Oct (got to 1791), but now it’s back down” on 2012-11-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% and said “Updating” on 2013-07-07
• RandomThinker said “It’s at 1155 now. ” on 2015-03-17
• RandomThinker said “http://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html” on 2015-03-17
• RandomThinker said “Hey I almost got the headline:http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/21/business/gold-falls-to-lowest-price-in-five-years-1106.html?ref=business“Gold Falls to Lowest Price in Five Years: $1,106”” on 2015-07-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-10-10
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.
• RandomThinker said “Turns out it was for the next 8 years. Gold is finally over 1900 now. July 2020.” on 2020-08-02