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LW user JaneQ is LW user private_messaging (is LW user Dmytry).

Created by papermachine on 2012-07-23; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Grognor on 2012-08-24.

  • papermachine estimated 95% on 2012-07-23
  • Jayson Virissimo said “How will this be judged?on 2012-07-23
  • VincentYu estimated 80% and said “I’m surprised this prediction has already been made here =D. Their writing statistics match up (extracted through textalyser.net + ibiblio.org/weidai/lesswrong_user.php) and daily posting times are also consistent.on 2012-07-24
  • VincentYu said “In case anyone doesn’t know: private_messaging has already stated a few times that he is Dmytry (e.g., http://lesswrong.com/lw/bl2/a_belief_propagation_graph/6jtl)).on 2012-07-24
  • VincentYu estimated 98% and said “Revised upward. On LW, the phrase “edit: i.e.” uniquely identifies these accounts (http://goo.gl/8Tdp3)). Another uncommon phrase used by all three accounts is “etc etc etc”.on 2012-07-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 88% on 2012-07-24
  • gwern estimated 70% and said “I’d only noticed the ‘ghmm’. How are we judging this, either confirmation from site admins that the IPs used are the same or a confession?on 2012-07-24
  • army1987 estimated 90% on 2012-08-05
  • gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/dy8/a_cynical_explanation_for_why_rationalists_worry/75tj seems to constitute an admission of both JaneQ and Comment. mark right?on 2012-08-06
  • Grognor said “yeson 2012-08-24
  • Grognor   judged this prediction right on 2012-08-24.