Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.

Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01

  • Rain estimated 95% on 2009-11-11
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 5% on 2009-11-12
  • Arenamontanus estimated 12% on 2009-11-13
  • Rain estimated 90% and said “19% Global Catastrophic Risks conference * 50% Prof. Sir Martin Rees * 30% Prof. John Leslie * Significant Judge Richard Posner * Not <25%, Dr. Nick Bostromon 2009-12-28
  • gwern estimated 20% on 2010-10-24
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
  • Arets Paeglis estimated 1% on 2011-10-25
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 25% and said “The median value in a survey of experts was 21%, if I recall correctly.on 2012-10-06
  • amitpamin estimated 5% on 2012-10-10
  • kilobug estimated 10% on 2012-10-10
  • Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2013-06-16
  • Peter Hurford estimated 0% and said “If I’m wrong about making this prediction, no one will be around to judge me, but if I’m right about making this prediction, people will think I have great predictive ability. Thus my anthropic prediction.on 2013-08-01
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2013-08-01
  • lavalamp estimated 0% and said “My non-anthropic guess is 80% or so…on 2013-08-01
  • dhoe estimated 1% on 2013-08-01
  • Unknowns estimated 15% on 2015-04-25
  • themusicgod1 estimated 93% on 2016-07-10

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