Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.

Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01

• Rain estimated 95% on 2009-11-11
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 5% on 2009-11-12
• Arenamontanus estimated 12% on 2009-11-13
• Rain estimated 90% and said “19% Global Catastrophic Risks conference * 50% Prof. Sir Martin Rees * 30% Prof. John Leslie * Significant Judge Richard Posner * Not <25%, Dr. Nick Bostrom” on 2009-12-28
• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-10-24
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• Arets Paeglis estimated 1% on 2011-10-25
• Pablo estimated 25% and said “The median value in a survey of experts was 21%, if I recall correctly.” on 2012-10-06
• amitpamin estimated 5% on 2012-10-10
• kilobug estimated 10% on 2012-10-10
• Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2013-06-16
• Peter Hurford estimated 0% and said “If I’m wrong about making this prediction, no one will be around to judge me, but if I’m right about making this prediction, people will think I have great predictive ability. Thus my anthropic prediction.” on 2013-08-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2013-08-01
• lavalamp estimated 0% and said “My non-anthropic guess is 80% or so…” on 2013-08-01
• dhoe estimated 1% on 2013-08-01
• Unknowns estimated 15% on 2015-04-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 93% on 2016-07-10
• Baeboo estimated 24% on 2017-11-25
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-11-25
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
• Baeboo estimated 15% on 2020-11-20