PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.

Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.

  • Grognor estimated 0% on 2012-08-27
  • gwern estimated 60% and said “I learned my lesson with the XiXiDu predictions” on 2012-08-28
  • Grognor said “lol if you think I’m going to sacrifice my predictionbook calibration” on 2012-08-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “Per Gwern” on 2012-08-28
  • JoshuaZ said “Grognor has a slightly more stubborn personality than XiXiDu, so I assign a higher chance that this will actually happen than I did in that case, but I’m still fairly skeptical. ” on 2012-08-28
  • muflax estimated 50% and said “I wonder if there should be a universal LWer-in-exile alt for technically true commitments with plausible deniability. #dramawhorebook” on 2012-08-28
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 88% on 2012-08-29
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2012-08-29
  • Grognor said “Fools! I made the wording like that on purpose!” on 2012-08-30
  • Grognor said “No limit to the persuasive power of social proof.” on 2012-08-30
  • RobertLumley said “He’ll just create a new account for this to be true should he want to comment somewhere.” on 2012-09-02
  • gwern said “He only has to slip up once, and if he’s posting in rationality quotes, it’s even easier” on 2012-09-02
  • Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2022-08-27” and made the prediction on 2012-09-03
  • Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2022-08-28” and made the prediction on 2012-09-06
  • Filipe estimated 70% on 2012-09-07
  • William-Quixote estimated 80% and said “10 years is a long time” on 2012-09-08
  • Grognor said “I wonder if all these retarded predictions stem from interpreting this prediction as a silence rather than simply avoiding posting on that particular account.” on 2012-09-11
  • muflax said “I for one did interpret it as you switching to a different account, which is why I went down so low. 10 years is a long time and the prior is very one-sided.” on 2012-09-11
  • gwern estimated 40% and said “since Grognor is being such an ass, I’ll flip my sign…” on 2012-09-11
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-05-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-05-09
  • pranomostro estimated 35% on 2018-12-09
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 20% on 2020-02-26
  • muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-08-28.