Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-09-02
• gwern said “see also Hanson will be successfully frozen: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2967 ; this prediction doesn’t require Hanson to be separated or divorced from his wife. ” on 2012-09-02
• gwern said “Basic reasoning behind 1/3: if I heard rumors about 10 pairs, at least half will be wrong – rumors are just rumors – but at least one or two will be right.” on 2012-09-02
• Konkvistador estimated 40% and said “There is clearly chemistry between them as can be heard in the occasional banter on their podcasts. ” on 2012-09-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-09-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “IDK why, but this feels more wrong than publicly assigning probability estimates of particular people commiting suicide. Oh well…” on 2012-09-03
• beo_shaffer estimated 30% on 2012-09-03
• Leo said “What is “publicly-known”?” on 2012-09-09
• Konkvistador said “@Jayson Virissimo: It really does. I might cause some awkward search results too…” on 2012-09-09
• gwern estimated 35% and said “updating on location info” on 2012-09-16
• Athrelon estimated 50% on 2012-09-27
• Pablo said “On some interpretations of “publicly-known”, the prediction may already be correct.” on 2012-09-29
• halfwit estimated 10% on 2013-06-09
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-10
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2019-01-04
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-09-02.