I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years.
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07
- gwern estimated 97% on 2012-09-07
- gwern said “based on http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8172 ; useful for http://www.gwern.net/Nicotine & http://www.gwern – 5 years: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8179” on 2012-09-07
- William-Quixote estimated 20% and said “If Cuba liberalizes, and you visit there, you might want to try a cigar as a touristy thing to do. 25 years is a long time.” on 2012-09-08
- drethelin estimated 60% on 2012-09-09
- themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-10
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