By the end of tomorrow (October 12th) Morendil will post part two of his LessWrong article on forecasting.

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2012-10-13; judged right by Pablo on 2012-10-12.

• Pablo estimated 35% on 2012-10-11
• Pablo said “Context: http://lesswrong.com/lw/eup/raising_the_forecasting_waterline_part_1/7m4n” on 2012-10-11
• Pablo   judged this prediction right on 2012-10-12.